Jim Lehrer with Donna Brazile and Whit Ayers

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Laurence Léveillé | Staff Writer

The 2012 election between President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney has often been compared to the 2004 election.

The line between Americans’ dissatisfaction with United States politics and the trust the public has in Obama compared to Romney leads to a close race.

“There are people who will never like President Obama, there are people who will never like Gov. Mitt Romney,” said Donna Brazile, a Democratic strategist and founder and managing director of Brazile & Associates, during Tuesday’s morning lecture.

Brazile and Whit Ayres, a Republican strategist, had a conversation with retired “PBS NewsHour” anchor Jim Lehrer as part of Week Two’s programming on the theme “The Lehrer Report: What Informed Voters Need to Know.” Ayres and Brazile discussed why they believe each candidate should win the election and the recent Supreme Court health care decision’s role in the 2012 elections.

Ayres, who is also president of Ayres, McHenry & Associates, was the first to explain why he believes Americans should vote for Romney as president.

“You should vote for Mitt Romney because four more years of what we’ve had would be a disaster,” he said.

Compared to 2008 and based on what voters are saying, Ayres said, a substantial majority of Americans think the economy is worse, the federal government’s fiscal standing is weaker, the government’s ability to solve problems is worse, and that the U.S.’s standing in the world is worse.

Re-election campaigns become a referendum of the incumbent. Looking at the president’s record and the increased partisanship, Ayres said he does not believe Obama deserves to be re-elected.

“It will be close, but I think most Americans will agree it’s time for something different,” Ayres said, “and that something different is going to be Mitt Romney.”

Brazile agreed that an incumbent’s re-election is a referendum.

“However, unless the president is wholly unpopular, the other candidate must be an acceptable choice,” she said.

The U.S. will re-elect Obama so he can finish the job he started, Brazile said. She said he would bring the economy to fiscal health, improve American lives, strengthen national defense and keep the country safe and secure.

Though she agrees the public is dissatisfied with the politics of the country, division and partisanship, she said Obama still possesses the traits of a leader.

“I think that he will win the re-election,” Brazile said, “and he will continue to tackle some of the most pressing problems we have in this country.”

Ayres responded to Brazile by telling the audience to remember three numbers: 77, 47 and 8.2.

The first number, 77, is the percentage of people who told Gallup Organization last week they are dissatisfied with the direction of the country.

“It’s a truism in my business you can’t get re-elected if a majority of the country is dissatisfied,” he said.

The second number, 47, is the percentage of Obama’s May job approval average, according to Gallup. Usually, presidents who are re-elected have a job approval average of almost always 50 percent or higher, Ayres said. Obama is hovering just below that percentage.

And the number 8.2 represents the most recent unemployment rate. Previously, the highest unemployment rate during a re-election campaign was in 1984 during Ronald Reagan’s re-election. At the time, it was at 7.4 percent, Ayres said.

If those three numbers remain as they are by Election Day, it will be difficult for Obama to win the re-election, Ayres said.

Brazile agreed that the numbers Ayres shared with the audience were legitimate, but she also said Romney should be seven or eight points ahead of Obama based on those numbers.

“But we’re not dealing with a national election, ladies and gentlemen,” she said. “We’re dealing with an election that will be fought in about eight to 10 states.”

In those states, she said, Obama is in a strong position. The election will come down to a handful of states that make a difference in the Electoral College, she said.

The 2012 election is also expected to be similar to the 2004 election between President George W. Bush and Sen. John Kerry.

“It’s going to be close,” Brazile said. “It’s going to be uncomfortable for a lot of people who don’t like to stay up and watch CNN until 3 in the morning.”

She said another aspect of the election affecting the numbers Ayres shared is the level of uncertainty there is among Americans.

“Uncertainty sometimes breeds fear, and that fear is what’s driving consumer confidence,” Brazile said.

Though the economy will be the main issue around which the election revolves, the Supreme Court’s decision on the Affordable Care Act could also play a role.

When the health care legislation was introduced to the public, Obama did not explain the bill in a way that could be understood, Brazile said.

Ayres said the fundamental issue with the health care legislation is that many people don’t believe what Obama said about it. Rather, an overwhelming majority believes the law will increase health care costs, premiums and the federal deficit, he said.

“It’s not that he hasn’t tried to sell it,” Ayres said, “it’s that the credibility on the issue is not sufficient so that he can sell it.”

Now that the Supreme Court has made a decision, Obama has the opportunity during his campaign to have the conversation he did not have before, Brazile said.

Just before the conversation on health care shifted, Brazile made a final point that Romney had difficulty fighting against Obama during the primaries and will continue to have trouble during the campaign.

The decision on the health care legislation will ensure that this year’s election is a referendum on Obama, Ayres said. But both he and Brazile agreed that the economy is still the top issue.

“It’s still the quality of our lives and our future as it relates to health care itself,” Brazile said.