Jim Lehrer and Andrew Kohut

Piece Description

Laurence Léveillé | Staff Writer

The public’s mixed opinions of the Supreme Court’s decision on the Affordable Care Act exemplifies the division in today’s politics.

Only 45 percent of Americans agreed with the decision, as opposed to 45 percent who disagreed with it, said Andrew Kohut, president of the Pew Research Center, at Monday’s morning lecture.

Despite the decision, Kohut said he believes the court’s acceptance of the bill will legitimize it to some degree.

“What has clearly happened is that the administration and President Obama really dodged a bullet,” Kohut said, “because if this legislation had been overturned, it would have taken away one of his achievements — and the knock on Obama, even for people who like him, is he hasn’t accomplished much.”

Retired “PBS NewsHour” anchor Jim Lehrer hosted a conversation with Kohut during the first morning lecture of Week Two, themed, “The Lehrer Report: What Informed Voters Need to Know.” The two discussed what the polls say about the Supreme Court’s health-care decision, division between parties and what matters most to people this election season.

The reason for mixed opinion about the Affordable Care Act is partially because people do not understand it. When people are asked about how much they have paid attention to it or how much they know, Kohut said, they admit they know little.

Those who say they know the most about it are the most critical, Kohut said. But it is unclear whether their knowledge is because they want to know about the bill or if it reflects that they have a better sense of what it shows than those who haven’t paid attention, he said.

Specific aspects of the legislation stand out, such as children staying on their parents’ health insurance until they are 26 and forbidding insurance companies from excluding potential buyers based on pre-existing health conditions. But people are concerned about the individual mandate — which requires everyone either to buy insurance or to pay a fine — and the government’s role in people’s lives, Kohut said.

In 2002, about 60 percent of people surveyed said the government has a responsibility to make sure everyone in the country is covered by health insurance. That number has dropped to about 50 percent, Kohut said.

“That reflects the growing concern that we have in this country, especially among Republicans, about the role of government in health care and many other aspects of life,” he said.

But to repeal the bill, as House Speaker John Boehner has vowed to do, will be a difficult task, Kohut said.

The division gap between Republicans and Democrats has increased from 10 percent to 18 percent in the last eight years, Kohut said. Of registered voters surveyed, 32 percent are Democrats, a 4 percent decrease from four years ago; 24 percent are Republicans, one of the lowest numbers for the party; and 38 percent are independents, a 75-year-high percentage, Kohut said.

“Political polarization in terms of values is not only in Washington,” Kohut said. “It’s all around the country.”

Kohut said moderate Republicans and moderate Democrats have not gone away. But rather than calling themselves “moderate,” many of them now refer to themselves as Independents who lean in one direction or the other.

It is important to know that Independents determined who won the last four elections, Kohut said. They voted for President George W. Bush in 2004, for Democrats in the 2006 congressional elections, for President Barack Obama in 2008 and for Republicans in the 2010 congressional elections.

This year, there is a sizable amount of Independents who have not made up their minds. Right now, they lean toward presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney but are not yet committed, Kohut said.

Second-term elections are referendums of what is happening at the time, Kohut said.

“On that basis, the public is thumbs-down on the times,” he said.

Fewer than about 28 percent say conditions are good, and most people think conditions are bad, Kohut said. Only 8 percent of people rate the national economy as good, he said.

“The Republicans should be way ahead of the Democrats because people are unhappy,” Kohut said, “and if they follow the pattern, they’ll vote for change.”

But people are not drawn to the Republican side because they do not find Romney to be trustworthy, Kohut said. Romney has a 40 percent favorable rating compared to other presidential candidates at this stage, who normally are in the 50-percent range whether they win or lose.

The No. 1 concern for voters is the economy, followed by unemployment. During the campaign, Obama will have to focus on how he will reduce unemployment, while Romney must show people he can do something about the issue, Lehrer said.

“That is the crux of the preference patterns that we see right now,” Kohut said

Obama wins all the personal evaluations, Kohut said, but Romney wins by a 49-to-41-percent margin as the candidate who can best improve economic conditions.

Although people know Romney is capable of improving the economy, they do not trust him.

“The levels of distrust of Romney are very high,” Kohut said. “People don’t think he connects to Americans, they don’t think he’s willing to take on the popular stand, they don’t rate him particularly highly as honest and truthful.”

Despite people’s unhappiness with Obama’s performance, regarding the economy and lack of jobs, the election will likely come down to the “Whom do you trust?” question.

Polls show that the public is more comfortable with Obama on most personal dimensions, Kohut said.

“When it comes to understanding your problems, to being consistent, position on issues, sharing your values, it’s Obama, Obama, Obama over Romney.” he said. “People worry about what kind of person Romney is.”

Kohut said the current situation is similar to 1980, when people were unhappy and Jimmy Carter hung in against Ronald Reagan until the last debate before the election.

Kohut does not predict that is what will happen to Romney, but he said the debates would be important during the election.

“When these men get up side by side and people make judgments about the two of them,” Kohut said, “will Obama continue to have such a personal advantage over Romney? Right now, it exists, and that’s why he’s ahead.”